Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine

Mehrab, Zakaria; Ravi, S. S.; Stundal, Logan; Swarup, Samarth; Venkatramanan, Srini; Lewis, Bryan; Mortveit, Henning; Leblang, David; Marathe, Madhav V.

doi:10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091

Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine

Zakaria Mehrab, S.S. Ravi, Logan Stundal, Samarth Swarup, Srini Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Henning Mortveit, David Leblang, Madhav V. Marathe

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Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. AI and Social Good. Pages 9818-9826.

https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091

Keywords

Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: General
Agent-based and Multi-agent Systems: General

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to the largest forced migration crisis in Europe since World War II, with millions displaced both internally and internationally. Among the displaced, approximately 4.2 million individuals have returned, highlighting the significance of return migration as a critical phase in the migration continuum. Existing studies on return migration are limited in scope, relying on survey-based approaches that suffer from demographic bias, lack of validation against ground truth, and inability to account for uncertainty. We propose a novel computational framework for modeling the return of conflict-induced migrants, using agent-based models (ABMs) and their surrogates. These models are grounded in hazard functions and account for sociopolitical contexts. Our proposed ABMs outperform baseline methods in estimating return migration from Poland to Ukraine by at least 42% and by as much as 57% in terms of normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). Further, to illustrate the utility of such models for policymakers, we conduct two case studies that estimate the duration of displacement and characterize the demographic breakdown among the returnees.

Zakaria Mehrab, S. S. Ravi, Logan Stundal, Samarth Swarup, Srini Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Henning Mortveit, David Leblang, and Madhav V. Marathe. 2025. Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine. In Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-25. IJCAI, 9818–9826. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091

@inproceedings{ijcai2025p1091,
  title     = {Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine},
  author    = {Mehrab, Zakaria and Ravi, S. S. and Stundal, Logan and Swarup, Samarth and Venkatramanan, Srini and Lewis, Bryan and Mortveit, Henning and Leblang, David and Marathe, Madhav V.},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-25}},
  publisher = {International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization},
  editor    = {James Kwok},
  pages     = {9818--9826},
  year      = {2025},
  month     = {8},
  note      = {AI and Social Good},
  doi       = {10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091},
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine
AU  - Mehrab, Zakaria
AU  - Ravi, S. S.
AU  - Stundal, Logan
AU  - Swarup, Samarth
AU  - Venkatramanan, Srini
AU  - Lewis, Bryan
AU  - Mortveit, Henning
AU  - Leblang, David
AU  - Marathe, Madhav V.
T2  - Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-25
PB  - International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization
PY  - 2025
SP  - 9818
EP  - 9826
DO  - 10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091
UR  - https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091
ER  -