{"type":"ScholarlyArticle","title":"Hazard Function Guided Agent-Based Models: A Case Study of Return Migration from Poland to Ukraine","authors":[{"name":"Zakaria Mehrab","slug":"zakaria-mehrab","given":"Zakaria","family":"Mehrab","affiliation":""},{"name":"S.S. Ravi","slug":"s-s-ravi","given":"S. S.","family":"Ravi","affiliation":""},{"name":"Logan Stundal","slug":"logan-stundal","given":"Logan","family":"Stundal","affiliation":""},{"name":"Samarth Swarup","slug":"samarth-swarup","given":"Samarth","family":"Swarup","affiliation":""},{"name":"Srini Venkatramanan","slug":"srini-venkatramanan","given":"Srini","family":"Venkatramanan","affiliation":""},{"name":"Bryan Lewis","slug":"bryan-lewis","given":"Bryan","family":"Lewis","affiliation":""},{"name":"Henning Mortveit","slug":"henning-mortveit","given":"Henning","family":"Mortveit","affiliation":""},{"name":"David Leblang","slug":"david-leblang","given":"David","family":"Leblang","affiliation":""},{"name":"Madhav V. Marathe","slug":"madhav-v-marathe","given":"Madhav V.","family":"Marathe","affiliation":""}],"abstract":"The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to the largest forced migration crisis in Europe since World War II, with millions displaced both internally and internationally. Among the displaced, approximately 4.2 million individuals have returned, highlighting the significance of return migration as a critical phase in the migration continuum. Existing studies on return migration are limited in scope, relying on survey-based approaches that suffer from demographic bias, lack of validation against ground truth, and inability to account for uncertainty. We propose a novel computational framework for modeling the return of conflict-induced migrants, using agent-based models (ABMs) and their surrogates. These models are grounded in hazard functions and account for sociopolitical contexts. Our proposed ABMs outperform baseline methods in estimating return migration from Poland to Ukraine by at least 42% and by as much as 57% in terms of normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). Further, to illustrate the utility of such models for policymakers, we conduct two case studies that estimate the duration of displacement and characterize the demographic breakdown among the returnees.","doi":"10.24963/ijcai.2025/1091","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2025/1091","pdf":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2025/1091.pdf","markdown":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2025/1091.md","bibtex":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2025/bibtex/1091","volume":{"slug":"2025","title":"Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence","short_title":"IJCAI 2025","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2025/","year":2025,"location":"Montreal, Canada","dates":"16-22 August 2025","editors":"James Kwok","isbn":"978-1-956792-06-5","publisher":"International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization","doi_prefix":"10.24963/ijcai.2025"},"section":"AI and Social Good","track":"AI and Social Good","number":1091,"pages":{"first":9818,"last":9826},"keywords":["Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: General","Agent-based and Multi-agent Systems: General"],"videos":[],"references":[],"license_note":"Copyright International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence."}