Proceedings

NeuroDALEC: A Differentiable and Interpretable Mass-Conserving Framework for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Cycle Dynamics

Download BibTeX Cite

Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. AI and Social Good. Pages 7455-7463.

https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2026/829

© 2026 International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Accurate simulation of terrestrial ecological carbon cycles is crucial for global climate change and ecosystem management. Process-based carbon models have high interpretability, but suffer from insufficient accuracy and slow computation due to fixed parameters. In contrast, deep-learning carbon models achieve high accuracy, but disregard physical principles, which prevents ecologists from explaining ecosystem dynamics. We propose NeuroDALEC, an interpretable framework that embeds the DALEC carbon-cycle model within a neural network, enabling differentiable computation of ecological processes. Key parameters and ensemble learning strategies are designed, and mass-conserving carbon pool state transition equations are introduced to ensure physical consistency. Experiments show NeuroDALEC outperforms existing models in both accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, it provides sufficient interpretability by predicting all components of the carbon cycle. Deployed in a real-time carbon assimilation system, NeuroDALEC supports daily carbon forecasting and decision-making. This work contributes to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals 13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land). The source code is available at: https://github.com/codesiena/NeuroDALEC.

  1. [Bernardini et al., 2024] Luca G Bernardini, Christoph Rosinger, Gernot Bodner, Katharina M Keiblinger, Emma Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Heide Spiegel, Carl O Retzlaff, and Andreas Holzinger. Learning vs. understanding: When does artificial intelligence outperform process- based modeling in soil organic carbon prediction? New Biotechnology, 81:20-31, 2024.
  2. [Bloom and Williams, 2015] AA Bloom and M Williams. Constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics in a data-limited world: integrating ecological" common sense" in a model- data fusion framework. Biogeosciences, 12(5):1299-1315, 2015.
  3. [Cao and Woodward, 1998] Mingkui Cao and F Ian Wood- ward. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change. Nature, 393(6682):249- 252, 1998.
  4. [Chen et al., 2024] Zeqiang Chen, Lei Wu, Nengcheng Chen, and Ke Wan. Modeling terrestrial net ecosystem ex- change based on deep learning in china. Remote Sensing, 17(1):92, 2024.
  5. [Chuter et al., 2015] Anna M Chuter, Philip J Aston, Anne C Skeldon, and Ian Roulstone. A dynamical systems analysis of the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (dalec) models. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 25(3), 2015.
  6. [Delahaies et al., 2017] Sylvain Delahaies, Ian Roulstone, and Nancy Nichols. Constraining dalecv2 using multiple data streams and ecological constraints: analysis and ap- plication. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(7):2635- 2650, 2017.
  7. [Famiglietti et al., 2021] Caroline A Famiglietti, T Luke Smallman, Paul A Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C Parazoo, Stephanie G Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, et al. Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction. Biogeo- sciences, 18(8):2727-2754, 2021.
  8. [Fan et al., 2025] Bin Fan, Hankui K Zhang, Zhongbin B Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Xianghong Che, Zhihua Liu, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Jing M Chen. Estimating carbon fluxes over north america using a physics-constrained deep learn- ing model. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 227:551-569, 2025.
  9. [Hari and Tyagi, 2022] Manoj Hari and Bhishma Tyagi. Ter- restrial carbon cycle: tipping edge of climate change be- tween the atmosphere and biosphere ecosystems. Environ- mental Science: Atmospheres, 2(5):867-890, 2022.
  10. [Hui et al., 2022] Edwin Hui, Richard Stafford, Iain M Matthews, and V Anne Smith. Bayesian networks as a novel tool to enhance interpretability and predictive power of ecological models. Ecological Informatics, 68:101539, 2022.
  11. [Jain and Mitra, 2025] Vishal Jain and Archan Mitra. To- ward a balanced earth climate neutrality and the fight against global warming. In Adaptive Strategies for Green Economy and Sustainability Policies, pages 391-404. IGI Global Scientific Publishing, 2025.
  12. [Jung et al., 2020] Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, et al. Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the fluxcom approach. Biogeosciences, 17(5):1343-1365, 2020.
  13. [Karniadakis et al., 2021] George Em Karniadakis, Ioan- nis G Kevrekidis, Lu Lu, Paris Perdikaris, Sifan Wang, and Liu Yang. Physics-informed machine learning. Nature Re- views Physics, 3(6):422-440, 2021.
  14. [Liao et al., 2023] Zhangze Liao, Binghuang Zhou, Jingyu Zhu, Hongyu Jia, and Xuehai Fei. A critical review of methods, principles and progress for estimating the gross primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11:1093095, 2023.
  15. [Liu et al., 2023] Yong Liu, Tengge Hu, Haoran Zhang, Haixu Wu, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma, and Mingsheng Long. itransformer: Inverted transformers are effective for time series forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.06625, 2023.
  16. [Liu et al., 2024] Licheng Liu, Wang Zhou, Kaiyu Guan, Bin Peng, Shaoming Xu, Jinyun Tang, Qing Zhu, Jessica Till, Xiaowei Jia, Chongya Jiang, et al. Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems. Nature communications, 15(1):357, 2024.
  17. [Ma et al., 2025] YQ Ma, JH Li, W Cao, and L Huang. Grain for green program to grassland might lead to car- bon sink leakage in the loess plateau. Earth's Future, 13(4):e2024EF005261, 2025.
  18. [McGuire et al., 2001] AD
  19. McGuire, S Sitch, Joy S Clein, R Dargaville, G Esser, J Foley, Martin Heimann, F Joos, J Kaplan, DW Kicklighter, et al. Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of co2, climate and land use effects with four process- based ecosystem models. Global biogeochemical cycles, 15(1):183-206, 2001.
  20. [Nie, 2022] Y Nie. A time series is worth 64words: Long-term forecasting with transformers. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.14730, 2022.
  21. [Perry et al., 2022] George LW Perry, Rupert Seidl, André M Bellvé, and Werner Rammer. An outlook for deep learning in ecosystem science. Ecosystems, 25(8):1700-1718, 2022.
  22. [Pierson et al., 2022] Derek Pierson, Kathleen A Lohse, William R Wieder, Nicholas R Patton, Jeremy Facer, Marie-Anne de Graaff, Katerina Georgiou, Mark S Seyfried, Gerald Flerchinger, and Ryan Will. Optimizing process-based models to predict current and future soil or- ganic carbon stocks at high-resolution. Scientific Reports, 12(1):10824, 2022.
  23. [Raissi et al., 2019] Maziar Raissi, Paris Perdikaris, and George E Karniadakis. Physics-informed neural networks: A deep learning framework for solving forward and in- verse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations. Journal of Computational physics, 378:686- 707, 2019.
  24. [Shen et al., 2023] Chaopeng Shen, Alison P Appling, Pierre Gentine, Toshiyuki Bandai, Hoshin Gupta, Alexandre Tartakovsky, Marco Baity-Jesi, Fabrizio Fenicia, Daniel Kifer, Li Li, et al. Differentiable modelling to unify ma- chine learning and physical models for geosciences. Na- ture Reviews Earth & Environment, 4(8):552-567, 2023.
  25. [Smallman and Williams, 2019] Thomas Luke Smallman and Mathew Williams. Description and validation of an intermediate complexity model for ecosystem photosyn- thesis and evapotranspiration: Acm-gpp-etv1. Geoscien- tific Model Development, 12(6):2227-2253, 2019.
  26. [Song et al., 2025] Jian Song, Shiqiang Wan, Shilong Piao, Jianyang Xia, Yan Ning, Mengmei Zheng, Dafeng Hui, Jingyi Ru, Juanjuan Han, Jiayin Feng, et al. Global change and china's terrestrial carbon sink: A quantitative review of 30 years' ecosystem manipulative experiments. Ecolog- ical Monographs, 95(1):e70005, 2025.
  27. [Tian et al., 2025] Yaxin Tian, Xiang Ren, Keke Li, and Xi- angqian Li. Carbon dioxide emission forecast: A review of existing models and future challenges. Sustainability, 17(4):1471, 2025.
  28. [Wang et al., 2021] Fang Wang, Jean Damascene Harindint- wali, Zhizhang Yuan, Min Wang, Faming Wang, Sheng Li, Zhigang Yin, Lei Huang, Yuhao Fu, Lei Li, et al. Tech- nologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality. The innovation, 2(4), 2021.
  29. [Wang et al., 2024] Yuxuan Wang, Haixu Wu, Jiaxiang Dong, Guo Qin, Haoran Zhang, Yong Liu, Yunzhong Qiu, Jianmin Wang, and Mingsheng Long. Timexer: Empow- ering transformers for time series forecasting with exoge- nous variables. Advances in Neural Information Process- ing Systems, 37:469-498, 2024.
  30. [Willard et al., 2022] Jared Willard, Xiaowei Jia, Shaoming Xu, Michael Steinbach, and Vipin Kumar. Integrating sci- entific knowledge with machine learning for engineering and environmental systems. ACM Computing Surveys, 55(4):1-37, 2022.
  31. [Williams et al., 2005] Mathew Williams, Paul A Schwarz, Beverly E Law, James Irvine, and Meredith R Kurpius. An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation. Global change biology, 11(1):89-105, 2005.
  32. [Yang et al., 2022] Yan Yang, A Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Paul Levine, Alexander Norton, Nicholas C Para- zoo, John T Reager, John Worden, Gregory R Quetin, T Luke Smallman, et al. Cardamom-fluxval version 1.0: a fluxnet-based validation system for cardamom carbon and water flux estimates. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(4):1789-1802, 2022.
  33. [Yuan et al., 2024] Wenping Yuan, Jiangzhou Xia, Chao- qing Song, and Ying-Ping Wang. Simulating the land carbon sink: Progresses and challenges of terrestrial ecosystem models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 358:110264, 2024.

References were extracted automatically from the PDF and may contain errors.

Welcome Future Conferences AI Journal Division IJCAI Proceedings About IJCAI IJCAI Awards