Proceedings

Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans

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Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Main Track. Pages 1551-1556.

Abstract

Given a hierarchical plan (or schedule) with uncertain task times, we may need to determine the probability that a given plan will satisfy a given deadline. This problem is shown to be NP-hard for series-parallel hierarchies. We provide a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for it. Computing the expected makespan of an hierarchical plan is also shown to be NP-hard. We examine the approximation bounds empirically and demonstrate where our scheme is superior to sampling and to exact computation.

Liat Cohen, Solomon Eyal Shimony, and Gera Weiss. 2015. Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-15. IJCAI, 1551–1556. https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/222
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