{"type":"ScholarlyArticle","title":"Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans","authors":[{"name":"Liat Cohen","slug":"liat-cohen","given":"Liat","family":"Cohen","affiliation":""},{"name":"Solomon Eyal Shimony","slug":"solomon-eyal-shimony","given":"Solomon Eyal","family":"Shimony","affiliation":""},{"name":"Gera Weiss","slug":"gera-weiss","given":"Gera","family":"Weiss","affiliation":""}],"abstract":"Given a hierarchical plan (or schedule) with uncertain task times, we may need to determine the probability that a given plan will satisfy a given deadline. This problem is shown to be NP-hard for series-parallel hierarchies. We provide a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for it. Computing the expected makespan of an hierarchical plan is also shown to be NP-hard. We examine the approximation bounds empirically and demonstrate where our scheme is superior to sampling and to exact computation.","doi":null,"url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/222","pdf":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/0222.pdf","markdown":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/222.md","bibtex":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/bibtex/222","volume":{"slug":"2015","title":"Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence","short_title":"IJCAI 2015","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2015/","year":2015,"location":"Buenos Aires, Argentina","dates":"25–31 July 2015","editors":"Qiang Yang and Michael Wooldridge","isbn":"978-1-57735-738-4","publisher":"International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence","doi_prefix":""},"section":"Planning","track":"Main Track","number":222,"pages":{"first":1551,"last":1556},"keywords":[],"videos":[],"references":[],"license_note":"Copyright International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence."}