Predicting Epidemic Tendency through Search Behavior Analysis

Xu, Danqing; Liu, Yiqun; Zhang, Min; Ma, Shaoping; Cui, Anqi; Ru, Liyun

doi:10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393

Predicting Epidemic Tendency through Search Behavior Analysis

Danqing Xu, Yiqun Liu, Min Zhang, Shaoping Ma, Anqi Cui, Liyun Ru

Download BibTeX Cite

Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Pages 2361-2365.

https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393

Abstract

The possibility that influenza activity can be generally detected through search log analysis has been explored in recent years. However, previous studies have mainly focused on influenza, and little attention has been paid to other epidemics. With an analysis of web user behavior data, we consider the problem of predicting the tendency of hand-foot -and-mouth disease (HFMD), whose out-break in 2010 resulted in a great panic in China. In addi-tion to search queries, we consider users’ interactions with search engines. Given the collected search logs, we cluster HFMD-related search queries, medical pages and news reports into the following sets: epidemic-related queries (ERQs), epidemic-related pages (ERPs) and ep-idemic-related news (ERNs). Furthermore, we count their own frequencies as different features, and we conduct a regression analysis with current HFMD occurrences. The experimental results show that these features exhibit good performances on both accuracy and timeliness.

Danqing Xu, Yiqun Liu, Min Zhang, Shaoping Ma, Anqi Cui, and Liyun Ru. 2011. Predicting Epidemic Tendency through Search Behavior Analysis. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-11. IJCAI, 2361–2365. https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393

@inproceedings{ijcai2011p393,
  title     = {Predicting Epidemic Tendency through Search Behavior Analysis},
  author    = {Xu, Danqing and Liu, Yiqun and Zhang, Min and Ma, Shaoping and Cui, Anqi and Ru, Liyun},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-11}},
  publisher = {AAAI Press/International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence},
  editor    = {Toby Walsh},
  pages     = {2361--2365},
  year      = {2011},
  month     = {7},
  doi       = {10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393},
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Predicting Epidemic Tendency through Search Behavior Analysis
AU  - Xu, Danqing
AU  - Liu, Yiqun
AU  - Zhang, Min
AU  - Ma, Shaoping
AU  - Cui, Anqi
AU  - Ru, Liyun
T2  - Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-11
PB  - AAAI Press/International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
PY  - 2011
SP  - 2361
EP  - 2365
DO  - 10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-393
ER  -