The Use of Simulation Models and Human Advice to Build an Expert System for the Defense and Control of River Floods

Abstract

This paper presents an outline on the design of an expert system aimed at helping decision makers to operate flood control dams and to plan civil defense in flood prone, The problem is first d esc ribed an d the need for an expert system is jus ti fie d by th e complexi t y of land use in the area as we ll as th e dificul t y to use simu lation models on time for prediction of damages and for th e ana l ysis of the best cotrol decisions. The expert system can synthesize the results of previous analysis with the models and the criteria of experts and it can be used on real time linked with an information system inclu ding rain intensity data and water levels at control points. The contents of the data base of the information system, and the general specifica tion of the different types of rules are presented. Fina+ly, the general methodolog y for the de finition of the rules based on the artificial ei perience created by a program of runs of the differents models for representation of hydraulic behavior is discussed. The project is now under study by the Spanish Ministry of Public Works.