MCloudNet: An Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Framework With Multi-Layer Cloud Coverage

Abstract

Over 4.15 million low-income households across nearly 60,000 villages in China benefit from photovoltaic (PV) poverty alleviation power stations. However, weak infrastructure and limited capabilities make these systems vulnerable to fluctuations. One of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7) seeks to ensure access to affordable and reliable energy for all, especially in underdeveloped regions. This paper proposes MCloudNet, a multi-modal framework designed to improve ultra-short-term PV prediction in data-scarce, cloud-dynamic environments. MCloudNet explicitly models multi-layer cloud structures from satellite imagery and fuses them with time-series meteorological data to enhance prediction accuracy and interpretability. A province-level dispatch system with MCloudNet has been deployed in Hebei, supporting scheduling across rural PV stations. Experiments conducted in counties such as Shexian and Luxi highlight the framework's effectiveness for use in underdeveloped micro-grids. Operational results show that the system has reduced over 60 million kWh of solar curtailment and generated 24 million CNY in economic value, benefiting approximately 50,000 rural households. By minimizing power fluctuations and improving rural energy scheduling, MCloudNet supports essential services such as lighting, medical facilities, and communications. The source code is available at: https://github.com/AI4SClab/MCloudNet.