PCAN: A Pandemic-Compatible Attentive Neural Network for Retail Sales Forecasting

Abstract

The outbreak of pandemic has a huge impact on production and consumption in the business world, especially for the retail sector. As a crucial component of decision-support technology in the retail industry, sales forecasting is significant for production planning and optimizing the supply of essential goods during the pandemic. However, due to the irregular fluctuation pattern caused by uncertainty and the complex temporal correlation between multiple covariates and sales, there is still no effective approach for sales forecasting in this extreme event. To fill this gap, we propose a Pandemic-Compatible Attentive Network (PCAN) for retail sales forecasting. Specifically, to capture the irregular fluctuation patterns from the sales series, we design a fluctuation attention mechanism based on association discrepancy in the time series. Then, a parallel attention module is developed to learn the complex relationship between target sales and various dynamic influence factors in a decoupled manner. Finally, we introduce a novel rectification decoding strategy to indicate fluctuation points in prediction. By evaluating PCAN on four real-world retail food datasets from the SF Express international supply chain system, the results show that our method achieves superior performance over the existing state-of-the-art baselines. The model has been deployed in the supply chain system as a fundamental component to serve a world-leading food retailer.