{"type":"ScholarlyArticle","title":"SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System","authors":[{"name":"Fred Morstatter","slug":"fred-morstatter","given":"Fred","family":"Morstatter","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Aram Galstyan","slug":"aram-galstyan","given":"Aram","family":"Galstyan","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Gleb Satyukov","slug":"gleb-satyukov","given":"Gleb","family":"Satyukov","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Daniel Benjamin","slug":"daniel-benjamin","given":"Daniel","family":"Benjamin","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Andres Abeliuk","slug":"andres-abeliuk","given":"Andres","family":"Abeliuk","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Mehrnoosh Mirtaheri","slug":"mehrnoosh-mirtaheri","given":"Mehrnoosh","family":"Mirtaheri","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"KSM Tozammel Hossain","slug":"ksm-tozammel-hossain","given":"KSM Tozammel","family":"Hossain","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Pedro Szekely","slug":"pedro-szekely","given":"Pedro","family":"Szekely","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Emilio Ferrara","slug":"emilio-ferrara","given":"Emilio","family":"Ferrara","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Akira Matsui","slug":"akira-matsui","given":"Akira","family":"Matsui","affiliation":"USC Information Sciences Institute"},{"name":"Mark Steyvers","slug":"mark-steyvers","given":"Mark","family":"Steyvers","affiliation":"University of California , Irvine"},{"name":"Stephen Bennet","slug":"stephen-bennet","given":"Stephen","family":"Bennet","affiliation":"University of California , Irvine"},{"name":"David Budescu","slug":"david-budescu","given":"David","family":"Budescu","affiliation":"Fordham University"},{"name":"Mark Himmelstein","slug":"mark-himmelstein","given":"Mark","family":"Himmelstein","affiliation":"Fordham University"},{"name":"Michael Ward","slug":"michael-ward","given":"Michael","family":"Ward","affiliation":"Predictive Heuristics , Inc."},{"name":"Andreas Beger","slug":"andreas-beger","given":"Andreas","family":"Beger","affiliation":"Predictive Heuristics , Inc."},{"name":"Michele Catasta","slug":"michele-catasta","given":"Michele","family":"Catasta","affiliation":"Stanford University 6 Pytho , LLC."},{"name":"Rok Sosic","slug":"rok-sosic","given":"Rok","family":"Sosic","affiliation":"Stanford University 6 Pytho , LLC."},{"name":"Jure Leskovec","slug":"jure-leskovec","given":"Jure","family":"Leskovec","affiliation":"Stanford University 6 Pytho , LLC."},{"name":"Pavel Atanasov","slug":"pavel-atanasov","given":"Pavel","family":"Atanasov","affiliation":""},{"name":"Regina Joseph","slug":"regina-joseph","given":"Regina","family":"Joseph","affiliation":""},{"name":"Rajiv Sethi","slug":"rajiv-sethi","given":"Rajiv","family":"Sethi","affiliation":"Columbia University"},{"name":"Ali Abbas","slug":"ali-abbas","given":"Ali","family":"Abbas","affiliation":"University of Southern California {fredmors , galstyan , gleb ,"}],"abstract":"Forecasting of geopolitical events is a notoriously difficult task, with experts failing to significantly outperform a random baseline across many types of forecasting events. One successful way to increase the performance of forecasting tasks is to turn to crowdsourcing: leveraging many forecasts from non-expert users. Simultaneously, advances in machine learning have led to models that can produce reasonable, although not perfect, forecasts for many tasks. Recent efforts have shown that forecasts can be further improved by ``hybridizing'' human forecasters: pairing them with the machine models in an effort to combine the unique advantages of both. In this demonstration, we present Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events (SAGE), a platform for human/computer interaction that facilitates human reasoning with machine models.","doi":"10.24963/ijcai.2019/955","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/955","pdf":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/0955.pdf","markdown":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/955.md","bibtex":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/bibtex/955","volume":{"slug":"2019","title":"Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence","short_title":"IJCAI 2019","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/","year":2019,"location":"Macao","dates":"10-16 August 2019","editors":"Sarit Kraus","isbn":"978-0-9992411-4-1","publisher":"International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization","doi_prefix":"10.24963/ijcai.2019"},"section":"Demos","track":"Demos","number":955,"pages":{"first":6557,"last":6559},"keywords":["AI: AI Modelling and Simulation","AI: Human-Computer Interactive Systems","AI: Machine Learning"],"videos":[],"references":[{"position":1,"raw":"[Brier, 1950] Glenn W Brier. 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