{"type":"ScholarlyArticle","title":"Blue Skies: A Methodology for Data-Driven Clear Sky Modelling","authors":[{"name":"Kartik Palani","slug":"kartik-palani","given":"Kartik","family":"Palani","affiliation":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , USA"},{"name":"Ramachandra Kota","slug":"ramachandra-kota","given":"Ramachandra","family":"Kota","affiliation":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , USA"},{"name":"Amar Prakash Azad","slug":"amar-prakash-azad","given":"Amar Prakash","family":"Azad","affiliation":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , USA"},{"name":"Vijay Arya","slug":"vijay-arya","given":"Vijay","family":"Arya","affiliation":"+ IBM Research , India"}],"abstract":"One of the major challenges confronting the widespread adoption of solar energy is the uncertainty of production. The energy generated by photo-voltaic systems is a function of the received solar irradiance which varies due to atmospheric and weather conditions. A key component required for forecasting irradiance accurately is the clear sky model which estimates the average irradiance at a location at a given time in the absence of clouds. Current methods for modelling clear sky irradiance are either inaccurate or require extensive atmospheric data, which tends to vary with location and is often unavailable. In this paper, we present a data-driven methodology, Blue Skies, for modelling clear sky irradiance solely based on historical irradiance measurements. Using machine learning techniques, Blue Skies is able to generate clear sky models that are more accurate spatio-temporally compared to the state of the art, reducing errors by almost 50%.","doi":"10.24963/ijcai.2017/528","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2017/528","pdf":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2017/0528.pdf","markdown":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2017/528.md","bibtex":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2017/bibtex/528","volume":{"slug":"2017","title":"Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence","short_title":"IJCAI 2017","url":"https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2017/","year":2017,"location":"Melbourne, Australia","dates":"19-25 August 2017","editors":"Carles Sierra","isbn":"978-0-9992411-0-3","publisher":"International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization","doi_prefix":"10.24963/ijcai.2017"},"section":"Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications","track":"Main track","number":528,"pages":{"first":3777,"last":3783},"keywords":["Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: AI and Natural Sciences","Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: Computational Sustainability"],"videos":[],"references":[{"position":1,"raw":"[Andreas and Wilcox, 2010] A Andreas and S Wilcox. Ob- served atmospheric and solar information system (oasis); tucson, arizona (data). Technical report, NREL Report No. DA-5500-56494. doi: 10. 5439/ 1052226, 2010.","title":"Observed atmospheric and solar information system (oasis); tucson, arizona (data)","authors":"Andreas, Wilcox","year":"2010","venue":null,"doi":"10.5439/1052226","url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":2,"raw":"[ASHRAE, 1979] ASHRAE. Handbook of Fundamentals 1979, American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Condition- ing Engineers. New York, 1979.","title":"ASHRAE. Handbook of Fundamentals 1979","authors":null,"year":"1979","venue":null,"doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":3,"raw":"[Badescu, 2008] Viorel Badescu. Verification of some very simple clear and cloudy sky models to evaluate global solar irradiance. Solar Energy, 61(4):251 -264, 2008.","title":"Verification of some very simple clear and cloudy sky models to evaluate global solar irradiance","authors":"Viorel Badescu","year":"2008","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":4,"raw":"[Bird, 1984] Richard E. Bird. A simple, solar spectral model for direct-normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance. Solar Energy, 32(4):461 -471, 1984.","title":"A simple, solar spectral model for direct-normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance","authors":"Richard E Bird","year":"1984","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":5,"raw":"[Brutsaert, 1975] Wilfried Brutsaert. On a derivable formula for long-wave radiation from clear skies. Water Resources Research, 11(5):742-744, 1975.","title":"On a derivable formula for long-wave radiation from clear skies","authors":"Wilfried Brutsaert, Brutsaert","year":"1975","venue":"Water Resources Research","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":6,"raw":"[Bucholtz, 1995] Anthony Bucholtz. Rayleigh-scattering cal- culations for the terrestrial atmosphere. Applied Optics, 34(15):2765-2773, 1995.","title":"Rayleigh-scattering calculations for the terrestrial atmosphere","authors":"Anthony Bucholtz","year":"1995","venue":"Applied Optics","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":7,"raw":"[Bdescu, 1987] V Bdescu. Can the model proposed by barbaro et al. be used to compute global solar radiation on the romanian territory? Solar Energy, 38(4):247-254, 1987.","title":"Can the model proposed by barbaro et al. be used to compute global solar radiation on the romanian territory?","authors":"Bdescu","year":"1987","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":8,"raw":"[Chameides et al., 1999] William L Chameides, H Yu, SC Liu, M Bergin, X Zhou, L Mearns, G Wang, CS Kiang, RD Saylor, C Luo, et al. Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in china through emission controls? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(24):13626-13633, 1999.","title":"Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in china through emission controls","authors":"H William L Chameides, Yu, M Liu, X Bergin, L Zhou, G Mearns, C S Wang, Kiang, C Saylor, Luo","year":"1999","venue":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":9,"raw":"[Daneshyar, 1978] M. Daneshyar. Solar radiation statistics for iran. Solar Energy, 21(4):345 -349, 1978.","title":"Solar radiation statistics for iran","authors":"M Daneshyar","year":"1978","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":10,"raw":"[Davies and McKay, 1982] John A. Davies and Donald C. McKay. Estimating solar irradiance and components. Solar Energy, 29(1):55 -64, 1982.","title":"Estimating solar irradiance and components","authors":"Mckay ; ] Davies, A John, Donald C Davies, Mckay","year":"1982","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":11,"raw":"[Davies and McKay, 1989] J.A. Davies and D.C. McKay. Eval- uation of selected models for estimating solar radiation on horizontal surfaces. Solar Energy, 43(3):153 -168, 1989.","title":"Evaluation of selected models for estimating solar radiation on horizontal surfaces","authors":"Davies, ; ] J A Mckay, D C Davies, Mckay","year":"1989","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":12,"raw":"[Elder and Strong, 1953] Tait Elder and John Strong. The infrared transmission of atmospheric windows. Journal of the Franklin Institute, 255(3):189-208, 1953.","title":"Tait Elder and John Strong. The infrared transmission of atmospheric windows","authors":"Strong Elder","year":"1953","venue":"Journal of the Franklin Institute","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":13,"raw":"[Ester et al., 1996] Martin Ester, Hans-Peter Kriegel, Jörg Sander, Xiaowei Xu, et al. A density-based algorithm for discovering clusters in large spatial databases with noise. In Kdd, volume 96, pages 226-231, 1996.","title":"A density-based algorithm for discovering clusters in large spatial databases with noise","authors":"Martin Ester, Hans-Peter Kriegel, Jörg Sander, Xiaowei Xu","year":"1996","venue":"Kdd","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":14,"raw":"[Grigiante et al., 2011] M. Grigiante, F. Mottes, D. Zardi, and M. de Franceschi. Experimental solar radiation measurements and their effectiveness in setting up a real-sky irradiance model. Renewable Energy, 36(1):1 -8, 2011.","title":"Experimental solar radiation measurements and their effectiveness in setting up a real-sky irradiance model","authors":"M Grigiante, F Mottes, D Zardi, M De Franceschi","year":"2011","venue":"Renewable Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":15,"raw":"[Gueymard, 1993] Christian Gueymard. Critical analysis and per- formance assessment of clear sky solar irradiance models using theoretical and measured data. Solar Energy, 51(2):121-138, 1993.","title":"Christian Gueymard. Critical analysis and performance assessment of clear sky solar irradiance models using theoretical and measured data","authors":"Gueymard","year":"1993","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":16,"raw":"[Gueymard, 2008] Christian A Gueymard. Rest2: High- performance solar radiation model for cloudless-sky irradiance, illuminance, and photosynthetically active radiation-validation with a benchmark dataset. Solar Energy, 82(3):272-285, 2008.","title":"Christian A Gueymard. Rest2: Highperformance solar radiation model for cloudless-sky irradiance, illuminance, and photosynthetically active radiation-validation with a benchmark dataset","authors":"Gueymard","year":"2008","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":17,"raw":"[Haurwitz, 1945] Bernhard Haurwitz. Insolation in relation to cloudiness and cloud density. Journal of Meteorology, 2(3):154-166, 1945.","title":"Insolation in relation to cloudiness and cloud density","authors":"Bernhard Haurwitz, Haurwitz","year":"1945","venue":"Journal of Meteorology","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":18,"raw":"[Ineichen and Perez, 2002] P. Ineichen and R. Perez. A new air- mass independent formulation for the linke turbidity coefficient. Solar Energy, 73(3):151 -157, 2002.","title":"A new airmass independent formulation for the linke turbidity coefficient","authors":"Perez Ineichen, P Ineichen, R Perez","year":"2002","venue":"Solar Energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":19,"raw":"Jensen, ] Ingrid Stver Jensen. Weather statistics for bangalore. https://www.yr.no/place/india/karnataka/ bangalore/statistics.html.","title":"Weather statistics for bangalore","authors":"] Jensen, Stver Ingrid, Jensen","year":null,"venue":null,"doi":null,"url":"https://www.yr.no/place/india/karnataka/bangalore/statistics.html","internal_url":null},{"position":20,"raw":"[Kasten and Czeplak, 1980] F. Kasten and G. Czeplak. Solar and terrestrial radiation dependent on the amount and type of cloud. Meteorologische Rundschau, 24:177-189, 1980.","title":"Solar and terrestrial radiation dependent on the amount and type of cloud","authors":"F Kasten, G Czeplak","year":"1980","venue":"Meteorologische Rundschau","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":21,"raw":"[Kasten and Young, 1989] Fritz Kasten and Andrew T Young. Revised optical air mass tables and approximation formula. Applied optics, 28(22):4735-4738, 1989.","title":"Revised optical air mass tables and approximation formula","authors":"Young ; Kasten, Fritz Kasten, Andrew T Young","year":"1989","venue":"Applied optics","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":22,"raw":"[Kasten, 1980] F. Kasten. A simple parameterization of the pyrheliometric formula for determining the linke turbidity factor. Meteorologische Rundschau, 33:124-127, 1980.","title":"A simple parameterization of the pyrheliometric formula for determining the linke turbidity factor","authors":"F Kasten","year":"1980","venue":"Meteorologische Rundschau","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":23,"raw":"[Key and Schweiger, 1998] Jeffrey R Key and Axel J Schweiger. Tools for atmospheric radiative transfer: Streamer and fluxnet. Computers & Geosciences, 24(5):443-451, 1998.","title":"Tools for atmospheric radiative transfer: Streamer and fluxnet","authors":"Schweiger ; Key, R Jeffrey, Axel J Key, Schweiger","year":"1998","venue":"Computers & Geosciences","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":24,"raw":"[Kim et al., 2016] Chang Ki Kim, William F Holmgren, Michael Stovern, and Eric A Betterton. Toward improved solar irradiance forecasts: Derivation of downwelling surface shortwave radi- ation in arizona from satellite. Pure and Applied Geophysics, pages 1-19, 2016.","title":"Toward improved solar irradiance forecasts: Derivation of downwelling surface shortwave radiation in arizona from satellite","authors":"Chang Ki, Kim, William F Holmgren, Michael Stovern, Eric A Betterton","year":"2016","venue":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":25,"raw":"[Liu and Jordan, 1960] Benjamin YH Liu and Richard C Jordan. The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation. Solar energy, 4(3):1-19, 1960.","title":"The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation","authors":"Y H Benjamin, Richard C Liu, Jordan","year":"1960","venue":"Solar energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":26,"raw":"[Long and Ackermani, 2000] C. N. Long and T. P. Ackermani. Identification of clear skies from broadband pyranometer measurements and calculation of downwelling shortwave cloud effects. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 105:15609-15626, Jan 2000.","title":"Identification of clear skies from broadband pyranometer measurements and calculation of downwelling shortwave cloud effects","authors":"C N Long, T P Ackermani","year":"2000","venue":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":27,"raw":"[McCartney, 1976] Earl J McCartney. Optics of the atmosphere: scattering by molecules and particles. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1976. 421 p., 1, 1976.","title":"Optics of the atmosphere: scattering by molecules and particles","authors":"Earl J Mccartney, Mccartney","year":"1976","venue":null,"doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":28,"raw":"NOAA, ] NOAA. National Weather Service -NWS Tuc- son. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/ monsoon.php.","title":"National Weather Service -NWS Tucson","authors":"Noaa","year":null,"venue":null,"doi":null,"url":"http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon.php","internal_url":null},{"position":29,"raw":"[Reda and Andreas, 2004] Ibrahim Reda and Afshin Andreas. Solar position algorithm for solar radiation applications. Solar energy, 76(5):577-589, 2004.","title":"Solar position algorithm for solar radiation applications","authors":"Andreas ; Reda, Ibrahim Reda, Afshin Andreas","year":"2004","venue":"Solar energy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":30,"raw":"[Reno et al., 2012] Matthew J Reno, Clifford W Hansen, and Joshua S Stein. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models: implementation and analysis. SANDIA report SAND2012-2389, 2012.","title":"Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models: implementation and analysis","authors":"J Matthew, Clifford W Reno, Joshua S Hansen, Stein","year":"2012","venue":null,"doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":31,"raw":"[Southworth, 1945] GC Southworth. Microwave radiation from the sun. In Classics in Radio Astronomy, pages 168-181. Springer, 1945.","title":"Microwave radiation from the sun","authors":"; Gc Southworth, Southworth","year":"1945","venue":"Classics in Radio Astronomy","doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":32,"raw":"[Wilcox, 2007] Stephen Wilcox. National solar radiation database 1991-2005 update: User's manual. Technical report, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO., 2007.","title":"National solar radiation database 1991-2005 update: User's manual","authors":"Stephen Wilcox","year":"2007","venue":null,"doi":null,"url":null,"internal_url":null},{"position":33,"raw":"WWO, ] WWO. Seria monthly climate average, brunei darus- salam. http://www.worldweatheronline.com/ seria-weather-averages/bn.aspx.","title":"WWO. Seria monthly climate average, brunei darussalam","authors":"Wwo","year":null,"venue":null,"doi":null,"url":"http://www.worldweatheronline.com/seria-weather-averages/bn.aspx","internal_url":null}],"license_note":"Copyright International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence."}