Modeling Contagious Merger and Acquisition via Point Processes with a Profile Regression Prior

Yan, Junchi; Xiao, Shuai; Li, Changsheng; Jin, Bo; Wang, Xiangfeng; Ke, Bin; Yang, Xiaokang; Zha, Hongyuan

Modeling Contagious Merger and Acquisition via Point Processes with a Profile Regression Prior

Junchi Yan, Shuai Xiao, Changsheng Li, Bo Jin, Xiangfeng Wang, Bin Ke, Xiaokang Yang, Hongyuan Zha

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Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Pages 2690-2695.

Abstract

Merger and Acquisition (M&A) has been a critical practice about corporate restructuring. Previous studies are mostly devoted to evaluating the suitability of M&A between a pair of investor and target company, or a target company for its propensity of being acquired. This paper focuses on the dual problem of predicting an investor's prospective M&A based on its activities and firmographics. We propose to use a mutually-exciting point process with a regression prior to quantify the investor's M&A behavior. Our model is motivated by the so-called contagious 'wave-like' M&A phenomenon, which has been well-recognized by the economics and management communities. A tailored model learning algorithm is devised that incorporates both static profile covariates and past M&A activities. Results on CrunchBase suggest the superiority of our model. The collected dataset and code will be released together with the paper.

Junchi Yan, Shuai Xiao, Changsheng Li, Bo Jin, Xiangfeng Wang, Bin Ke, Xiaokang Yang, and Hongyuan Zha. 2016. Modeling Contagious Merger and Acquisition via Point Processes with a Profile Regression Prior. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-16. IJCAI, 2690–2695. https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/382

@inproceedings{ijcai2016p382,
  title     = {Modeling Contagious Merger and Acquisition via Point Processes with a Profile Regression Prior},
  author    = {Yan, Junchi and Xiao, Shuai and Li, Changsheng and Jin, Bo and Wang, Xiangfeng and Ke, Bin and Yang, Xiaokang and Zha, Hongyuan},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-16}},
  publisher = {AAAI Press / International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence},
  editor    = {Subbarao Kambhampati},
  pages     = {2690--2695},
  year      = {2016},
  month     = {7},
  url       = {https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/382},
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Modeling Contagious Merger and Acquisition via Point Processes with a Profile Regression Prior
AU  - Yan, Junchi
AU  - Xiao, Shuai
AU  - Li, Changsheng
AU  - Jin, Bo
AU  - Wang, Xiangfeng
AU  - Ke, Bin
AU  - Yang, Xiaokang
AU  - Zha, Hongyuan
T2  - Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-16
PB  - AAAI Press / International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
PY  - 2016
SP  - 2690
EP  - 2695
UR  - https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/382
ER  -