On Modeling and Predicting Individual Paper Citation Count over Time

Xiao, Shuai; Yan, Junchi; Li, Changsheng; Jin, Bo; Wang, Xiangfeng; Yang, Xiaokang; Chu, Stephen M.; Zha, Hongyuan

On Modeling and Predicting Individual Paper Citation Count over Time

Shuai Xiao, Junchi Yan, Changsheng Li, Bo Jin, Xiangfeng Wang, Xiaokang Yang, Stephen M. Chu, Hongyuan Zha

Download BibTeX Cite

Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Pages 2676-2681.

Abstract

Evaluating a scientist's past and future potential impact is key in decision making concerning with recruitment and funding, and is increasingly linked to publication citation count. Meanwhile, timely identifying those valuable work with great potential before they receive wide recognition and become highly cited Abstracts is both useful for readers and authors in many regards. We propose a method for predicting the citation counts of individual publications, over an arbitrary time period. Our approach explores paper-specific covariates, and a point process model to account for the aging effect and triggering role of recent citations, through which Abstracts lose and gain their popularity, respectively. Empirical results on the Microsoft Academic Graph data suggests that our model can be useful for both prediction and interpretability.

Shuai Xiao, Junchi Yan, Changsheng Li, Bo Jin, Xiangfeng Wang, Xiaokang Yang, Stephen M. Chu, and Hongyuan Zha. 2016. On Modeling and Predicting Individual Paper Citation Count over Time. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-16. IJCAI, 2676–2681. https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/380

@inproceedings{ijcai2016p380,
  title     = {On Modeling and Predicting Individual Paper Citation Count over Time},
  author    = {Xiao, Shuai and Yan, Junchi and Li, Changsheng and Jin, Bo and Wang, Xiangfeng and Yang, Xiaokang and Chu, Stephen M. and Zha, Hongyuan},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-16}},
  publisher = {AAAI Press / International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence},
  editor    = {Subbarao Kambhampati},
  pages     = {2676--2681},
  year      = {2016},
  month     = {7},
  url       = {https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/380},
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - On Modeling and Predicting Individual Paper Citation Count over Time
AU  - Xiao, Shuai
AU  - Yan, Junchi
AU  - Li, Changsheng
AU  - Jin, Bo
AU  - Wang, Xiangfeng
AU  - Yang, Xiaokang
AU  - Chu, Stephen M.
AU  - Zha, Hongyuan
T2  - Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-16
PB  - AAAI Press / International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
PY  - 2016
SP  - 2676
EP  - 2681
UR  - https://ijcai.org/proceedings/2016/380
ER  -