Input Parameter Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction: Taking the Intelligent Way

Wendt, Kerstin; Cortés, Ana

doi:10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503

Input Parameter Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction: Taking the Intelligent Way

Kerstin Wendt, Ana Cortés

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Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Pages 2862-2862.

https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503

Abstract

Imprecision and uncertainty in the large number of input parameters are serious problems in forest fire behaviour modelling. To obtain more reliable forecasts, fast and efficient computational input parameter estimation and calibration mechanisms should be integrated. These have to respect hard real-time constraints of simulations to prevent tragedy. We propose an Evolutionary Intelligent System (EIS) for parameter calibration. Depending on disaster size, required parameter precision, and available computing resources, the hybridisation of an evolutionary algorithm (EA) with an intelligent paradigm (IP) can be configured. Experiments show that EIS generates comparable estimations to standard evolutionary calibration approaches, clearly outperforming the latter in runtime.

Kerstin Wendt, and Ana Cortés. 2011. Input Parameter Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction: Taking the Intelligent Way. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-11. IJCAI, 2862–2862. https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503

@inproceedings{ijcai2011p503,
  title     = {Input Parameter Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction: Taking the Intelligent Way},
  author    = {Wendt, Kerstin and Cortés, Ana},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-11}},
  publisher = {AAAI Press/International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence},
  editor    = {Toby Walsh},
  pages     = {2862--2862},
  year      = {2011},
  month     = {7},
  doi       = {10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503},
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Input Parameter Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction: Taking the Intelligent Way
AU  - Wendt, Kerstin
AU  - Cortés, Ana
T2  - Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-11
PB  - AAAI Press/International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
PY  - 2011
SP  - 2862
EP  - 2862
DO  - 10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5591/978-1-57735-516-8/IJCAI11-503
ER  -