A Framework for Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty

Cohen, Paul R.; Grinberg, Milton R.

A Framework for Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty

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Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Knowledge Representation. Pages 355-356.

Abstract

This paper describes a theory of reason ing about uncertainty, based on a repr es entation of stat e·> of certainty called e nd or $e m ents (see Cohen and Grinberg, 1983, for a more detailed discussion of the theory.) The theory of endor se ments is an alternative to numerical methods for reasoning about uncertainty, such as subjective Bayesian methods (Shortliffe and Buchanan, 1975; Duda, Hart, and Nilsson, 1976) and the Shafer· Dempster theory (Shafer, 1976) . The fundamental concern with numerical representations of certainty is that they hide the reasoning that produces them and thus limit one 's reasoning about uncertainty. While numbe rs are easy to propagate over inferences, what the numbers mean is unclear. The theory of endorsements represents the factors that affect certainty and supports multiple strategies for dealing with uncertainty.

Paul R. Cohen, and Milton R. Grinberg. 1983. A Framework for Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-83. IJCAI, 355–356. https://ijcai.org/proceedings/1983/84

@inproceedings{ijcai1983p84,
  title     = {A Framework for Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty},
  author    = {Cohen, Paul R. and Grinberg, Milton R.},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on
               Artificial Intelligence, {IJCAI-83}},
  publisher = {International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence},
  editor    = {Alan Bundy},
  pages     = {355--356},
  year      = {1983},
  note      = {Knowledge Representation},
  url       = {https://ijcai.org/proceedings/1983/84},
}

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TI  - A Framework for Heuristic Reasoning About Uncertainty
AU  - Cohen, Paul R.
AU  - Grinberg, Milton R.
T2  - Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI-83
PB  - International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
PY  - 1983
SP  - 355
EP  - 356
UR  - https://ijcai.org/proceedings/1983/84
ER  -